The iPhone Ultra, Apple’s first foldable iPhone, could be significantly scarcer at launch than expected. According to TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, availability is likely to be delayed by several weeks, while scalpers could profit from the resulting shortages.
Parallels to the iPhone X Launch in 2017
As Kuo noted, according to Notebookcheck, he draws clear parallels to the iPhone X from 2017: Although the device was unveiled on September 12 alongside the iPhone 8, pre-orders didn’t begin until October 27, and it wasn’t actually available until November 3. Kuo expects a similar pattern for the iPhone Ultra: Although it is expected to be unveiled during the Apple keynote anticipated for September 8 or 9, the actual launch could not take place until the fourth quarter of 2026. 9to5Mac also confirms this assessment based on Kuo’s latest analysis.
According to Kuo, the delay is due to limited production volumes: In the third quarter of 2026, only 500,000 to 1 million units are expected to be manufactured—just about 10 percent of the total 7 to 8 million devices expected for the second half of the year. The fact that Apple’s foldable iPhone is struggling with production issues is not new; rather, it is the latest in a series of reports about delays related to the display and hinge mechanism.
High Prices, Even Higher Resale Margins
Even the manufacturer’s suggested retail price is likely to be steep: Kuo estimates it will range from $2,300 to $2,500, surpassing even earlier price leaks that put the figure around the 3,000-euro mark in Europe. If demand does indeed exceed supply by the end of the year, resellers could, according to Kuo, command an additional 50 to 100 percent markup on the official retail price—a hefty profit margin for scalpers who can get their hands on the device early.
Unlike the iPhone X, which sold about 30 million units in the second half of 2017 alone, Kuo expects significantly lower sales figures this time around. For the second half of 2026, he estimates that about 7 to 8 million foldables will be sold—a fraction of the iPhone X figures from that time, which is likely due primarily to the high price and manufacturing issues.
What This Means for Prospective Buyers
According to Kuo, anyone interested in the iPhone Ultra should expect delivery times of four to six weeks or longer once pre-orders begin. Truly reliable assessments of long-term demand won’t be possible until toward the end of the year or in the first quarter of 2027, once the initial hype has died down and production bottlenecks have eased. Until then, it remains unclear whether Apple will be able to achieve similar success with its first foldable as it once did with the iPhone X—at the very least, the signs pointing to a bumpy sales launch are currently mounting.
Conclusion
The iPhone Ultra is likely to be one of the hardest-to-find Apple devices in recent years when it launches. Between a high starting price, limited quantities, and a possible delayed market launch in the fourth quarter, there are currently strong indications that interested buyers will either have to pre-order very quickly or expect to pay significant markups from resellers.
